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Whidbey Island Observations and Predictions
NWS Weather Simulation Model Forecasts all wind speeds in Knots.
10 knots → 11.5 mph → 18.5 kph
Tatoosh and Smith data last acquired Saturday, Nov 07, 2009 at 1:19AM PST
click here Tatoosh or Smith Islands for most recent obs.
Usually, good West winds when Tatoosh is .03" (1 millibar) higher than Smith. (according to LW)
The Tatoosh to Whidbey Island pressure difference is currently -0.03 in
TatooshTatoosh 5-day Atmospheric PressureAtmospheric Pressure (PRES):29.72 in
SmithSmith 5-day Plot Atmospheric PressureAtmospheric Pressure (PRES):29.74 in
link to realtime data at wunderground
Smith Island Continuous Winds (Source data updated hourly hh:18)
TIME
(PST)		5-day plot - Wind Direction WDIR5-day plot - Wind Speed WSPD
1:00 amSSE ( 163 deg ) 22 kts
12:50 amSSE ( 157 deg ) 25 kts
12:40 amSSE ( 156 deg ) 25 kts
12:30 amSSE ( 156 deg ) 25 kts
12:20 amSSE ( 155 deg ) 26 kts
12:10 amSSE ( 153 deg ) 26 kts

RASP FORECAST SURFACE MAPS(new ones posted early AM and mid evening when available) Animated loop
| 5AM | 6AM | 7AM | 8AM | 9AM | 10AM | 11AM | noon | 1PM | 2PM | 3PM | 4PM | 5PM | 6PM | 7PM | 8PM | 9PM | 10PM
Sunsight today 7:05 AM PST          Sunclipse today 4:42 PM PST
Whidbey NAS (MOS Forecasts last acquired fromhttp://www.fdtb.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmav.pl?sta=KNUW and http://www.fdtb.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmet.pl?sta=KNUW on Saturday, Nov 07, 2009 at 12:42AM PST)
Smith Island (MOS Forecasts last acquired fromhttp://www.fdtb.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/nammme.txt and http://www.fdtb.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/gfsmmg.txt on Saturday, Nov 07, 2009 at 12:42AM PST)
Whidbey Naval Air Station: Forecast Wind Speed (knots) and direction (azimuth) from the NAM forecast KNUW. 
NAM MOS Forecast for Whidbey Naval Air Station KNUW   NAM Model run on   11/07/2009  at 0000UTC (-8 4PM PST)                      
Forecast Hour PST   10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 10A 4PM 
Wind Direction deg  150 140 150 160 140 150 170 160 160 150 130 130 130 140 130 130 130 130 140 130 140 
Forecast Wind kts    13  13  13   9  13  17  15  12   9   9   8  10  10  18  16  19  19  15  15  17  13 

GFS MOS Forecast for Whidbey Naval Air Station KNUW   GFS Model run on   11/07/2009  at 0000UTC (-8 4PM PST)                      
Forecast Hour PST   10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 10A 4PM 
Wind Direction deg  150 140 150 140 140 140 140 140 150 130 130 120 130 130 130 120 130 130 130 140 150 
Forecast Wind kts    14  14  15  13  16  16  13  12  11  12  11  10  14  15  16  14  14  17  18  16  13
Smith Island: Forecast Wind Speed (knots) and direction (azimuth) (N48.32 W122.84) 
NAM MOS Forecast for Smith Island SISW1 NAM Model run on   11/07/2009  at 0000UTC (-8 4PM PST)                      
Forecast Hour PST   10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 
Wind Direction dg   150 150 170 170 150 150 170 160 150 160 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 130 140 130 140 
Forecast Wind kts    17  18  15  12  20  23  15  12  13  14  14  14  15  19  21  24  20  20  19  19  20 
Forecast Wind kts10  16  17  15  12  19  21  14  11  12  13  13  13  14  18  20  23  19  19  18  18  19 
 
 GFS MOS Forecast for Smith Island SISW1  GFS Model run on   11/07/2009  at 0000UTC (-8 4PM PST)                      
Forecast Hour PST   10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 
Wind Direction dg   150 150 160 150 150 140 160 150 150 150 150 140 130 130 140 130 130 130 130 130 130 
Forecast Wind kts    18  22  21  18  20  20  16  15  14  15  15  14  15  19  19  22  22  25  24  27  20 
Forecast Wind kts10  17  21  19  17  19  19  15  14  13  15  14  13  14  18  18  21  21  23  23  25  19
MOS forecasts last acquired Saturday, Nov 07, 2009 at 12:42AM PST
Below is the 24 hour LAMP Forecast — winds only. Click here for complete LAMP forecast for KNUW last accessed Nov 07 at 12:35AM PST
KNUW WHIDBEY IS.NAS GFS LAMP GUIDANCE 11/07/2009 12:00 AM PST Model Run
Hour 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10AM 11AM 12PM 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10PM 11PM 12AM 1AM
WDR
WSP25232220191918171818181920181716141312121111111112

RASP Forecast winds for Ft Ebey at 48.220 -122.76 as calculated for 5 different domains

from TJ's DrJack RASP forecasts All speeds are in knots.
The ForecastPd tells how many hours ahead the forecast was for when it was made.
Blipspot for 7 Nov 2009 -- Ebey (PNW region) 4km grid
VALID.TIME 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 VALID.TIME
ForecastPd 10.0h 11.0h 12.0h 13.0h 14.0h 15.0h 16.0h 17.0h 18.0h 19.0h 20.0h 21.0h --h ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir 152 154 158 172 212 222 82 86 68 43 26 27 - Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt 13 14 16 11 6 2 3 6 7 6 7 7 - Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
Blipspot for 7 Nov 2009 -- Ebey (BLAN region) 4km grid
VALID.TIME 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 VALID.TIME
ForecastPd 16.0h 17.0h 18.0h 19.0h 20.0h 21.0h 22.0h 23.0h 24.0h 25.0h 26.0h 27.0h --h ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir 158 158 156 154 156 159 160 162 161 162 168 170 - Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt 11 12 14 18 21 23 22 20 16 12 11 11 - Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
Blipspot for 7 Nov 2009 -- Ebey (EBEY region) 4km grid
VALID.TIME 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 VALID.TIME
ForecastPd 16.0h 17.0h 18.0h 19.0h 20.0h 21.0h 22.0h 23.0h 24.0h 25.0h 26.0h 27.0h --h ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir 147 152 163 161 153 161 165 169 180 175 156 145 - Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt 13 12 19 23 24 26 25 22 14 8 7 9 - Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
Blipspot for 7 Nov 2009 -- Ebey (EBEY region) 1.3km grid
VALID.TIME 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 VALID.TIME
ForecastPd 16.0h 17.0h 18.0h 19.0h 20.0h 21.0h 22.0h 23.0h 24.0h 25.0h 26.0h 27.0h --h ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir 140 141 141 173 156 163 166 174 183 178 161 145 - Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt 14 14 10 14 25 21 22 19 14 10 8 9 - Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
Blipspot for -- Ebey (SKAG region) 4km grid
VALID.TIME 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 VALID.TIME
ForecastPd --h --h --h --h --h --h --h --h --h --h --h --h --h ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir - - - - - - - - - - - - - Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt - - - - - - - - - - - - - Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt

If you follow these forecasts, please let me know which one seems to be the more reliable/accurate. They all start from the same raw data, but because they use different boundaries they end up with different results. TJ Hours don't always match for GFS and ETA because GFS runs every 6 hours and eta every 12hours
ETA projections are for 6 through 84 hours in advance, from the initial model times of 0000, and 1200 UTC
GFS projections are for 6 through 84 hours in advance, from the initial model times of 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800.
Only 60 hour forecasts are reported here. LAMP forecast is updated every three hours.

StationTime Wind SpeedWind DirectionGusting to
Bluff 1mi N. of Ft. Ebey 1:15 AM 16.0 MPH SSE16.0 MPH
Smith Island 1:00 AM 25mph / 11m/s S 30mph / 13m/s
Whidbey NAS 12:56 AM 25mph / 11m/s SE 32mph / 14m/s
Keystone Ferry 12:35 AM 29mph / 13m/s SE
Race Rocks Bouy 1:00 AM 7mph / 3m/s N

Metar from KNUW Whidbey Naval Air Station

Conditions at: KNUW (WHIDBEY IS. NAS, WA, US) observed 12:56 AM PST Temperature: 7.8°C (46°F) Dewpoint: 4.4°C (40°F) [RH = 79%] Pressure (altimeter): 29.75 inches Hg (2:07 AM PST.5 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1007.8 mb] Winds: from the SSE (150 degrees) at 25 MPH (22 knots; 11.4 m/s)
gusting to 32 MPH (28 knots; 14.6 m/s) Visibility: 10 or more miles (16+ km) Ceiling: 2,200 feet AGL Clouds: few clouds at 1,500 feet AGL
broken clouds at 2,200 feet AGL
broken clouds at 6,500 feet AGL Weather:
SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!!
"$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance

Note from El Diablo: "Keystone ferry, NAS Whidbey and Race Rocks data are virtually superfluous to the topic of whether Fort Ebey is, or will be, soarable. These are my own observations from twelve years and well over a thousand hours soaring there."
Jim Martyn (El Diablo)   2 miles north of Fort Ebey, along the bluff
MM5 forecasts (times on UW generated MM5 forecast graphics are always UTC
Note that both Ft. Ebey and Smith Island coordinates generate the same meteogram and sounding from the MM5. The one below is for KNUW, which is different.
That means that according to MM5, the forecast for Ft. Ebey is the SAME as the forecast for Smith Island. Experience has shown that the winds an the Fort can be quite different from Smith Island, so ask a long time Whidbey person for interpretation of the data. Remember that "Whidbey is On" may mean anything from steady 8 mph from SW to gusty 25+mph from the WNW, depending on who is saying it.

Right click on the image and choose "view or show image" to see the whole meteogram.
For soundings and metograms from other domains, useTJ's Weather Widget

NWS Meteogram — Digital Forecast for the next 48 hours:
WRF based meteogram from NWS for Whidbey Island near Ft Ebey
Current winds from the ferry
Anacortes to SanJuan Island
ferry winds

RASP FORECAST SURFACE MAPS Animated loop

| 8AM | 9AM | 10AM | 11AM | noon | 1PM | 2PM | 3PM | 4PM | 5PM | 6PM | 7PM | 8PM
(when available)
Windcasts for the next few hours:
1st 2nd 3rd
4th 5th 5th
From http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/sew.php#tabs
Western Washington Forecast graphics for surface level pressure, temperature, and 10M winds SLP
    6hr     
11 o'clock 		     9hr     
2 o'clock 		    12hr     
5 o'clock 		    15hr     
8 o'clock 		    18hr     
11 o'clock 		    21hr     
2 o'clock 		    24hr     
5 o'clock 		   27hr     
8 o'clock
Whether it is AM or PM depends on when the most recent run was completed.
MM5 Time Heights for Whidbey NAS KNUW 4km domain (Forecast soundings over time.)
MM5 Time Heights for Friday Harbor 4km domain (Forecast soundings over time.)
MM5 Time Heights for Victoria BC 4km domain (Forecast soundings over time.)
MM5 Time Heights for Vancouver BC CYVR 4km domain (Forecast soundings over time.)
Fort Ebey 48.23N -122.73W elev. 95ft   Graphical 48hrs (click here or scroll down)
USA Forecast for Straight of Juan de Fuca and Admiralty Inlet.
Canadian Forecast for the East end of Straight of Juan de Fuca
All BC Marine Forecasts including Juan de Fuca and Haro Strait
48 hour Digital forecasts for Fort Ebey:      On the water  ||     On land
  • Most recent METARs
    Oak Harbor weather camera for sky conditions.
    Port Townsend weather camera -- Can be pointed at the Ft. Ebey Baker preset includes most.
    Quick pictures of Wind on Ferry routes
    Get Ferry Wind picture between Anacortes and San Juan Islands
    Get Ferry Wind picture between Port Townsend Keystone Whidbey Island
    The official version of ferry winds

    View Larger Map
    Direct Links to Current Observations
    Current and recent Smith Island Observations 48.32 N 122.84 W National Data Bouy network
    MesoWest
    Table of mesowest stations within 50 miles of Ft. Ebey
    Current Whidbey NAS observations 48.22°N, 122.76°W
    Oak Harbor Air Park 48.2500°N, 122.6667°W
    Near Joeseph Whidbey State Park 48.3067°N, 122.6772°W
    Bouy 46088 In water WSW of Ft. Ebey LAT: 48.3 LON -123.2
    Race Rocks Bouy Even further West.
    Port Townsend
    Victoria Automatic station just East of Victoria
    Langley Wa, South Whidbey Island

    Launch code graphical presentation of MOS GFS/AVN and ETA data


    Pretty Launch Code Graphical version of MOS ETA guidance for KNUW
    Pretty Launch Code Graphical version of MOS GFS/AVN guidance for KNUW

    Pretty Launch Code Graphical version of MOS GFS/AVN guidance for SISW1 Smith Island --- !!! They started doing it!! Thanks Mark!
    Near Keystone Ferry Weather site.   Lat:48.177°   Lon:-122.642°   Elevation: 120 ft
    West Oceanfront Whidbey, Coupeville, WA
    Partridge Point, Coupeville, WA (may be dead)
    Crockett Lake, Coupeville, WA
    Direct Links to MOS guidance forecasts:
    For full explanations of the MOS ETA and the GFS MOS MAV forecasts.
    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shtml for all MOS text forecasts.
    Full Smith Island ETA forecast
    Full Smith Island GFS (AVN/MAV) forecast
    Full ETA forecast MOS Whidbey NAS
    Full GFS (AVN/MAV) forecast MOS Whidbey NAS
    Full NGM Nested Grid Model MOS guidance Whidbey NAS
    Localized Aviation MOS Program (Not available for Smith Island)
    Full GFS LAMP for Whidbey NAS -- same stuff, but hourly forecasts and updated every 3 hours instead of 6 or 12...
    Meteogram of above from LAMP (Requires Java)
    All Nested Grid model forecasts were discontinued Jan 18 2008
    List of all meso stations within 30 miles of Smith island
    Marine forecast for the water out in front of the Fort.
    Conversion factors Enter known speed on
    right. Click convert.
    10 mph → 8.7knots →16 kph → 4.5 mps
    10knots → 11.5 mph → 18.5 kph → 5.14 mps
    10 kph → 6.2 mph → 5.4knots → 2.78 mps
    1 Meters/second (mps) → 197 feet/minute (fpm)
    10 Meters/second (mps) → 36kph → 22.8mph





    miles (mph)
    knots (kt)
    kilometers (km/h)
    meters/sec (m/s)
    (ft/sec) (ft/min)
    Beaufort
      
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    Forecasts
    NWS Forecast Whidbey Island
    Pre-set digital forecasts for Flying Sites
    New experimental graphical forecast tool
    KING 5 TV's most recent video forecast

    To Get Digital Forecasts or Topo Maps,       TJ's Full Weather Widget
    Enter an arbitrary decimal lattitude and longitude (within the continental US for forecast and topo).
    New Latitude New Longitude

    Decoding the MOS forecasts:

  • Aviation (AVN) http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/info/decodemav.php
  • and Environmental ETA (NGM) http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/info/decodemet.php
    Cloud (CLD) Categories
     ABBREV  MAV/ETA/NGM octa=1/8 of sky AVN/GFS/MET
    CL clear 0/10 of opaque clouds
    SC scattered > 0 to 4 octas 1/10 to 5/10 of opaque clouds
    BK broken > 4 to < 8 octas 6/10 to 9/10 of opaque clouds
    OV overcast 10/10 of opaque clouds
    or totally obscured
    XX MISSING Missing
    MAV Ceiling Height Categories
    1 < 200 feet
    2 200 - 400 feet
    3 500 - 900 feet
    4 1000 - 1900 feet
    5 2000 - 3000 feet
    6 3100 - 6500 feet
    7 6600 - 12,000 feet
    8 > 12,000 feet or unlimited ceiling
    MAV Visibility (VIS) Categories
    1 1/2 mile or less
    2 more than 1/2 - or less than 1 mile
    3 1 mile - less than 2
    4 2 - less than 3 miles
    5 3 - 5 miles
    6 6 miles
    7 Vis is > 6 miles
    QPF Liquid QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS:
    QPF CATEGORIES MAV and MET
    0 no precipitation
    1 0.01 to 0.09 inches
    2 0.10 to 0.24 inches
    3 0.25 to 0.49 inches
    4 0.50 to 0.99 inches
    5 1.00 to 1.99 inches
    6 2.00 inches or greater