TJ's Blanchard Page Vis Satellite Smith Island Obs APRS real-time weather nearby RUC Soundings all Day TJ's Full Weather Widget RASP
Whidbey Island Observations and Predictions
NWS Weather Simulation Model Forecasts all wind speeds in Knots.
10 knots → 11.5 mph → 18.5 kph
Tatoosh and Smith data last acquired Sunday, Nov 22, 2009 at 8:53AM PST
click here Tatoosh or Smith Islands for most recent obs.
Usually, good West winds when Tatoosh is .03" (1 millibar) higher than Smith. (according to LW)
The Tatoosh to Whidbey Island pressure difference is currently 0.05 in
TatooshTatoosh 5-day Atmospheric PressureAtmospheric Pressure (PRES):29.55 in
SmithSmith 5-day Plot Atmospheric PressureAtmospheric Pressure (PRES):29.48 in
link to realtime data at wunderground
Smith Island Continuous Winds (Source data updated hourly hh:18)
TIME
(PST)		5-day plot - Wind Direction WDIR5-day plot - Wind Speed WSPD
8:00 amS ( 175 deg ) 15 kts
7:50 amS ( 182 deg ) 14 kts
7:40 amSSW ( 194 deg ) 11 kts
7:30 amSSW ( 208 deg ) 14 kts
7:20 amSSW ( 209 deg ) 15 kts
7:10 amSSW ( 202 deg ) 15 kts

RASP FORECAST SURFACE MAPS(new ones posted early AM and mid evening when available) Animated loop
| 5AM | 6AM | 7AM | 8AM | 9AM | 10AM | 11AM | noon | 1PM | 2PM | 3PM | 4PM | 5PM | 6PM | 7PM | 8PM | 9PM | 10PM
Sunsight today 7:30 AM PST             Sunclipse today 4:22 PM PST
Whidbey NAS (MOS Forecasts last acquired fromhttp://www.fdtb.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmav.pl?sta=KNUW and http://www.fdtb.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmet.pl?sta=KNUW on Sunday, Nov 22, 2009 at 8:42AM PST)
Smith Island (MOS Forecasts last acquired fromhttp://www.fdtb.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/nammme.txt and http://www.fdtb.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/gfsmmg.txt on Sunday, Nov 22, 2009 at 8:42AM PST)
Whidbey Naval Air Station: Forecast Wind Speed (knots) and direction (azimuth) from the NAM forecast KNUW. 
NAM MOS Forecast for Whidbey Naval Air Station KNUW   NAM Model run on   11/22/2009  at 1200UTC (-8 4AM PST)                      
Forecast Hour PST   10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 10P|4AM 
Wind Direction deg  230 190 270 270 270 090 120 120 130 140 130 120 130 100 100 090 100 080 110 130 130 
Forecast Wind kts     8   9  10   9   8   5   8  12  20  23  16  11   8   3   3   4   4   6   6  13  17 

GFS MOS Forecast for Whidbey Naval Air Station KNUW   GFS Model run on   11/22/2009  at 1200UTC (-8 4AM PST)                      
Forecast Hour PST   10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 10P|4AM 
Wind Direction deg  180 190 190 160 140 130 120 120 130 130 130 130 140 100 030 010 100 110 110 120 130 
Forecast Wind kts     8  12  11  10  10   9  12  12  18  17  12   9   5   3   3   3   5   7   5   7   9
Smith Island: Forecast Wind Speed (knots) and direction (azimuth) (N48.32 W122.84) 
NAM MOS Forecast for Smith Island SISW1 NAM Model run on   11/22/2009  at 1200UTC (-8 4AM PST)                      
Forecast Hour PST   10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|
Wind Direction dg   260 250 270 280 270 140 130 140 140 130 140 140 120 110 100 100 090 100 100 110 130 
Forecast Wind kts    13  12  18  15  10  10  13  22  22  32  24  19   8   7   5   6   7   7  12  10  17 
Forecast Wind kts10  12  12  17  14  10   9  12  21  21  30  23  18   8   6   5   6   7   7  11   9  16 
 
 GFS MOS Forecast for Smith Island SISW1  GFS Model run on   11/22/2009  at 1200UTC (-8 4AM PST)                      
Forecast Hour PST   10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|1AM 4AM 7AM 10A 1PM 4PM 7PM 10P|
Wind Direction dg   200 200 200 200 150 140 130 130 130 140 130 140 110 150 090 050 110 110 120 120 120 
Forecast Wind kts    19  18  17  12  12  12  17  21  21  24  15  10   7   7   7   5   7   7   8  10   9 
Forecast Wind kts10  18  17  16  12  11  11  16  19  20  23  14   9   6   6   6   4   7   7   8   9   9
MOS forecasts last acquired Sunday, Nov 22, 2009 at 8:42AM PST
Below is the 24 hour LAMP Forecast — winds only. Click here for complete LAMP forecast for KNUW last accessed Nov 22 at 8:35AM PST
KNUW WHIDBEY IS.NAS GFS LAMP GUIDANCE 11/22/2009 8:00 AM PST Model Run
Hour 9AM 10AM 11AM 12PM 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10PM 11PM 12AM 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM
WDR
WSP 8 7 7 91013131213131314131311 9 8 8 9 9 910101316

RASP Forecast winds for Ft Ebey at 48.220 -122.76 as calculated for 5 different domains

from TJ's DrJack RASP forecasts All speeds are in knots.
The ForecastPd tells how many hours ahead the forecast was for when it was made.
Blipspot for 22 Nov 2009 -- Ebey (PNW region) 4km grid
VALID.TIME 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 VALID.TIME
ForecastPd 10.0h 11.0h 12.0h 13.0h 14.0h 15.0h 16.0h 17.0h 18.0h 19.0h 20.0h 21.0h --h ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir 302 298 276 274 269 270 268 271 270 269 271 271 - Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt 25 21 27 27 27 28 26 24 23 23 21 19 - Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
Blipspot for 22 Nov 2009 -- Ebey (BLAN region) 4km grid
VALID.TIME 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 VALID.TIME
ForecastPd 4.0h 5.0h 6.0h 7.0h 8.0h 9.0h 10.0h 11.0h 12.0h 13.0h 14.0h 15.0h --h ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir 193 269 281 286 278 272 270 267 264 263 268 270 - Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt 11 19 20 17 17 18 18 21 23 23 21 19 - Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
Blipspot for 22 Nov 2009 -- Ebey (EBEY region) 4km grid
VALID.TIME 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 VALID.TIME
ForecastPd 4.0h 5.0h 6.0h 7.0h 8.0h 9.0h 10.0h 11.0h 12.0h 13.0h 14.0h 15.0h --h ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir 215 277 284 285 279 272 272 272 269 266 269 272 - Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt 14 22 22 16 15 17 20 22 23 25 23 20 - Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
Blipspot for 22 Nov 2009 -- Ebey (EBEY region) 1.3km grid
VALID.TIME 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 VALID.TIME
ForecastPd 4.0h 5.0h 6.0h 7.0h 8.0h 9.0h 10.0h 11.0h 12.0h 13.0h 14.0h 15.0h --h ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir 218 272 279 283 277 272 270 271 269 266 267 270 - Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt 15 28 23 16 14 15 20 22 24 25 24 21 - Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
Blipspot for 22 Nov 2009 -- Ebey (SKAG region) 4km grid
VALID.TIME 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 VALID.TIME
ForecastPd --h --h --h --h --h --h --h --h --h --h --h --h --h ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir 315 290 280 270 268 270 270 268 267 - - - - Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt 13 17 20 22 26 27 26 20 19 - - - - Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt

If you follow these forecasts, please let me know which one seems to be the more reliable/accurate. They all start from the same raw data, but because they use different boundaries they end up with different results. TJ Hours don't always match for GFS and ETA because GFS runs every 6 hours and eta every 12hours
ETA projections are for 6 through 84 hours in advance, from the initial model times of 0000, and 1200 UTC
GFS projections are for 6 through 84 hours in advance, from the initial model times of 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800.
Only 60 hour forecasts are reported here. LAMP forecast is updated every three hours.

StationTime Wind SpeedWind DirectionGusting to
Bluff 1mi N. of Ft. Ebey 8:50 AM 16.0 MPH West16.0 MPH
Smith Island 8:00 AM 16mph / 7m/s S 21mph / 9m/s
Whidbey NAS 7:56 AM 9mph / 4m/s S
Keystone Ferry 8:15 AM 1mph / 1m/s E
Race Rocks Bouy 8:00 AM 16mph / 7m/s NW

Metar from KNUW Whidbey Naval Air Station

Conditions at: KNUW (WHIDBEY IS. NAS, WA, US) observed 7:56 AM PST Temperature: 6.1°C (43°F) Dewpoint: 4.4°C (40°F) [RH = 89%] Pressure (altimeter): 29.50 inches Hg (999.1 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 999.2 mb] Winds: from the SSW (200 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 knots; 4.2 m/s) Visibility: 6 miles (10 km) Ceiling: 2,500 feet AGL Clouds: broken clouds at 2,500 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 3,300 feet AGL Weather: RA BR  (rain, mist)
SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!!
"$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance

Note from El Diablo: "Keystone ferry, NAS Whidbey and Race Rocks data are virtually superfluous to the topic of whether Fort Ebey is, or will be, soarable. These are my own observations from twelve years and well over a thousand hours soaring there."
Jim Martyn (El Diablo)   2 miles north of Fort Ebey, along the bluff
MM5 forecasts (times on UW generated MM5 forecast graphics are always UTC
Note that both Ft. Ebey and Smith Island coordinates generate the same meteogram and sounding from the MM5. The one below is for KNUW, which is different.
That means that according to MM5, the forecast for Ft. Ebey is the SAME as the forecast for Smith Island. Experience has shown that the winds an the Fort can be quite different from Smith Island, so ask a long time Whidbey person for interpretation of the data. Remember that "Whidbey is On" may mean anything from steady 8 mph from SW to gusty 25+mph from the WNW, depending on who is saying it.

Right click on the image and choose "view or show image" to see the whole meteogram.
For soundings and metograms from other domains, useTJ's Weather Widget

NWS Meteogram — Digital Forecast for the next 48 hours:
WRF based meteogram from NWS for Whidbey Island near Ft Ebey
Current winds from the ferry
Anacortes to SanJuan Island
ferry winds

RASP FORECAST SURFACE MAPS Animated loop

| 8AM | 9AM | 10AM | 11AM | noon | 1PM | 2PM | 3PM | 4PM | 5PM | 6PM | 7PM | 8PM
(when available)
Windcasts for the next few hours:
1st 2nd 3rd
4th 5th 5th
From http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/sew.php#tabs
Western Washington Forecast graphics for surface level pressure, temperature, and 10M winds SLP
    6hr     
11 o'clock 		     9hr     
2 o'clock 		    12hr     
5 o'clock 		    15hr     
8 o'clock 		    18hr     
11 o'clock 		    21hr     
2 o'clock 		    24hr     
5 o'clock 		   27hr     
8 o'clock
Whether it is AM or PM depends on when the most recent run was completed.
MM5 Time Heights for Whidbey NAS KNUW 4km domain (Forecast soundings over time.)
MM5 Time Heights for Friday Harbor 4km domain (Forecast soundings over time.)
MM5 Time Heights for Victoria BC 4km domain (Forecast soundings over time.)
MM5 Time Heights for Vancouver BC CYVR 4km domain (Forecast soundings over time.)
Fort Ebey 48.23N -122.73W elev. 95ft   Graphical 48hrs (click here or scroll down)
USA Forecast for Straight of Juan de Fuca and Admiralty Inlet.
Canadian Forecast for the East end of Straight of Juan de Fuca
All BC Marine Forecasts including Juan de Fuca and Haro Strait
48 hour Digital forecasts for Fort Ebey:      On the water  ||     On land
  • Most recent METARs
    Oak Harbor weather camera for sky conditions.
    Port Townsend weather camera -- Can be pointed at the Ft. Ebey Baker preset includes most.
    Quick pictures of Wind on Ferry routes
    Get Ferry Wind picture between Anacortes and San Juan Islands
    Get Ferry Wind picture between Port Townsend Keystone Whidbey Island
    The official version of ferry winds

    View Larger Map
    Direct Links to Current Observations
    Current and recent Smith Island Observations 48.32 N 122.84 W National Data Bouy network
    MesoWest
    Table of mesowest stations within 50 miles of Ft. Ebey
    Current Whidbey NAS observations 48.22°N, 122.76°W
    Oak Harbor Air Park 48.2500°N, 122.6667°W
    Near Joeseph Whidbey State Park 48.3067°N, 122.6772°W
    Bouy 46088 In water WSW of Ft. Ebey LAT: 48.3 LON -123.2
    Race Rocks Bouy Even further West.
    Port Townsend
    Victoria Automatic station just East of Victoria
    Langley Wa, South Whidbey Island

    Launch code graphical presentation of MOS GFS/AVN and ETA data


    Pretty Launch Code Graphical version of MOS ETA guidance for KNUW
    Pretty Launch Code Graphical version of MOS GFS/AVN guidance for KNUW

    Pretty Launch Code Graphical version of MOS GFS/AVN guidance for SISW1 Smith Island --- !!! They started doing it!! Thanks Mark!
    Near Keystone Ferry Weather site.   Lat:48.177°   Lon:-122.642°   Elevation: 120 ft
    West Oceanfront Whidbey, Coupeville, WA
    Partridge Point, Coupeville, WA (may be dead)
    Crockett Lake, Coupeville, WA
    Direct Links to MOS guidance forecasts:
    For full explanations of the MOS ETA and the GFS MOS MAV forecasts.
    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shtml for all MOS text forecasts.
    Full Smith Island ETA forecast
    Full Smith Island GFS (AVN/MAV) forecast
    Full ETA forecast MOS Whidbey NAS
    Full GFS (AVN/MAV) forecast MOS Whidbey NAS
    Full NGM Nested Grid Model MOS guidance Whidbey NAS
    Localized Aviation MOS Program (Not available for Smith Island)
    Full GFS LAMP for Whidbey NAS -- same stuff, but hourly forecasts and updated every 3 hours instead of 6 or 12...
    Meteogram of above from LAMP (Requires Java)
    All Nested Grid model forecasts were discontinued Jan 18 2008
    List of all meso stations within 30 miles of Smith island
    Marine forecast for the water out in front of the Fort.
    Conversion factors Enter known speed on
    right. Click convert.
    10 mph → 8.7knots →16 kph → 4.5 mps
    10knots → 11.5 mph → 18.5 kph → 5.14 mps
    10 kph → 6.2 mph → 5.4knots → 2.78 mps
    1 Meters/second (mps) → 197 feet/minute (fpm)
    10 Meters/second (mps) → 36kph → 22.8mph





    miles (mph)
    knots (kt)
    kilometers (km/h)
    meters/sec (m/s)
    (ft/sec) (ft/min)
    Beaufort
      
    | TJ's Blanchard Page | All TJ's Weather and Paragliding links | Current conditions from APRS stations and wunderground | Digital Forecasts for flying sites |
    | Rapid Update soundings for flying sites | Wind's aloft Seattle and Vancouver | NWS normal weather forecasts |

    Forecasts
    NWS Forecast Whidbey Island
    Pre-set digital forecasts for Flying Sites
    New experimental graphical forecast tool
    KING 5 TV's most recent video forecast

    To Get Digital Forecasts or Topo Maps,       TJ's Full Weather Widget
    Enter an arbitrary decimal lattitude and longitude (within the continental US for forecast and topo).
    New Latitude New Longitude

    Decoding the MOS forecasts:

  • Aviation (AVN) http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/info/decodemav.php
  • and Environmental ETA (NGM) http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/info/decodemet.php
    Cloud (CLD) Categories
     ABBREV  MAV/ETA/NGM octa=1/8 of sky AVN/GFS/MET
    CL clear 0/10 of opaque clouds
    SC scattered > 0 to 4 octas 1/10 to 5/10 of opaque clouds
    BK broken > 4 to < 8 octas 6/10 to 9/10 of opaque clouds
    OV overcast 10/10 of opaque clouds
    or totally obscured
    XX MISSING Missing
    MAV Ceiling Height Categories
    1 < 200 feet
    2 200 - 400 feet
    3 500 - 900 feet
    4 1000 - 1900 feet
    5 2000 - 3000 feet
    6 3100 - 6500 feet
    7 6600 - 12,000 feet
    8 > 12,000 feet or unlimited ceiling
    MAV Visibility (VIS) Categories
    1 1/2 mile or less
    2 more than 1/2 - or less than 1 mile
    3 1 mile - less than 2
    4 2 - less than 3 miles
    5 3 - 5 miles
    6 6 miles
    7 Vis is > 6 miles
    QPF Liquid QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS:
    QPF CATEGORIES MAV and MET
    0 no precipitation
    1 0.01 to 0.09 inches
    2 0.10 to 0.24 inches
    3 0.25 to 0.49 inches
    4 0.50 to 0.99 inches
    5 1.00 to 1.99 inches
    6 2.00 inches or greater


    Ebey Watchers?