Whidbey Island Observations and Predictions — Not much better than a crystal ball...
NWS Weather Simulation Model
Forecasts all wind speeds in Knots. 10 knots → 11.5 mph → 18.5 kph
Tatoosh and Smith data last acquired Sunday, Jan 29, 2012 at 5:09PM PST click here Tatoosh or Smith Islands for most recent obs.
Usually, good West winds when Tatoosh is .03" (1 millibar) higher than Smith. (according to LW)
With Tatoosh at 29.76 " and Whidbey NAS at 29.79" ,
the Tatoosh to Whidbey Island pressure difference is currently -0.03 in
KNUW WHIDBEY IS.NAS GFS LAMP GUIDANCE 1/30/2012 4:00 PM PST Model Run
Hour
5PM
6PM
7PM
8PM
9PM
10PM
11PM
12AM
1AM
2AM
3AM
4AM
5AM
6AM
7AM
8AM
9AM
10AM
11AM
12PM
1PM
2PM
3PM
4PM
5PM
WDR
WSP
11
11
10
10
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
8
9
9
8
8
7
8
9
8
8
8
7
7
RASP Forecast winds for Ft Ebey at 48.220 -122.76 as calculated for 2 different domains
from TJ's DrJack RASP forecastsAll speeds are in knots. The ForecastPd tells how many hours ahead the forecast was for when it was made.
Blipspot
for
29
Jan
2012
--
Ebey
(PNW
region)
4km
grid
VALID.TIME
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
VALID.TIME
10M_Wind_Dir
160
160
162
158
157
159
161
160
160
-
-
-
-
10M_Wind_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
11
10
11
12
10
9
8
8
8
-
-
-
-
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
10M_Wind_Sp_Kt
12
11
12
13
11
10
9
9
8
-
-
-
-
10M_Wind_Sp_Kt
If you follow these forecasts, please let me know which one seems to be the more reliable/accurate. They start from the same raw data, but because they use different boundaries they end up with different results. TJ
Hours don't always match for GFS and ETA because GFS runs every 6 hours and eta every 12hours
ETA projections are for 6 through 84 hours in advance, from the initial model times of 0000, and 1200 UTC
GFS projections are for 6 through 84 hours in advance, from the initial model times of 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800.
Only 60 hour forecasts are reported here. LAMP forecast is updated every three hours.
from the ESE (120 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 knots; 2.6 m/s)
Visibility:
10 or more miles (16+ km)
Ceiling:
1,100 feet AGL
Clouds:
broken clouds at 1,100 feet AGL broken clouds at 2,100 feet AGL overcast cloud deck at 4,500 feet AGL
Weather:
-RA (light rain) SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!! "$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance
Note from El Diablo: "Keystone ferry, NAS Whidbey and Race Rocks data are virtually superfluous to the topic of whether Fort Ebey is, or will be, soarable. These are my own observations from twelve years and well over a thousand hours soaring there."
Jim Martyn (El Diablo)
2 miles north of Fort Ebey, along the bluff
MM5 forecasts (times on UW generated MM5 forecast graphics are always UTC
For soundings and metograms from other domains, use
To Get Digital Forecasts or Topo Maps, TJ's Full Weather Widget Enter an arbitrary decimal lattitude and longitude (within the continental US for forecast and topo).
CLD = forecast categories of total sky cover valid at that hour.
WDR = forecasts of the 10-meter wind direction at the hour, given in tens of degrees.
WSP = forecasts of the 10-meter wind speed at the hour, given in knots.
P06 = probability of precipitation (PoP) during a 6-h period ending at that time.
The 6 hour PoPs are valid for intervals of 6-12, 12-18, 18-24, 24-30, 30-36, 36-42, 42-48, 48-54 and 54-60 hours after the initial data times.
P12 = PoP during a 12-h period ending at that time.
The 12 hour PoPs are valid for intervals of 12-24, 24-36, 36-48 and 48-60 hours after the initial data times.
In the message, the PoPs are tabulated at the end time of the noted time interval. The numeric values of the PoPs are given to the nearest percent, ranging between 0 and 100%. A missing forecast is indicated by "999".
T06 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 6-hr period ending at the indicated time.
T12 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 12-hr period ending at the indicated time.
Q06 = quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 6-h period ending at that time.
Q12 = QPF category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 12-h period ending at the indicated time.
SNW = snow fall categorical forecasts during a 24-h period ending at the indicated time.
CIG = ceiling height categorical forecasts at the hour.
Cloud (CLD) Categories
ABBREV
MAV/ETA/NGM octa=1/8 of sky
AVN/GFS/MET
CL
clear
0/10 of opaque clouds
SC
scattered > 0 to 4 octas
1/10 to 5/10 of opaque clouds
BK
broken > 4 to < 8 octas
6/10 to 9/10 of opaque clouds
OV
overcast
10/10 of opaque clouds or totally obscured
XX
MISSING
Missing
MAV Ceiling Height Categories
1
< 200 feet
2
200 - 400 feet
3
500 - 900 feet
4
1000 - 1900 feet
5
2000 - 3000 feet
6
3100 - 6500 feet
7
6600 - 12,000 feet
8
> 12,000 feet or unlimited ceiling
MAV Visibility (VIS) Categories
1
1/2 mile or less
2
more than 1/2 - or less than 1 mile
3
1 mile - less than 2
4
2 - less than 3 miles
5
3 - 5 miles
6
6 miles
7
Vis is > 6 miles
QPF Liquid
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS: QPF CATEGORIES MAV and MET
Windgrams
RASP
