KNUW WHIDBEY IS.NAS GFS LAMP GUIDANCE 11/22/2009 8:00 AM PST Model Run
Hour
9AM
10AM
11AM
12PM
1PM
2PM
3PM
4PM
5PM
6PM
7PM
8PM
9PM
10PM
11PM
12AM
1AM
2AM
3AM
4AM
5AM
6AM
7AM
8AM
9AM
WDR
WSP
8
7
7
9
10
13
13
12
13
13
13
14
13
13
11
9
8
8
9
9
9
10
10
13
16
RASP Forecast winds for Ft Ebey at 48.220 -122.76 as calculated for 5 different domains
from TJ's DrJack RASP forecastsAll speeds are in knots. The ForecastPd tells how many hours ahead the forecast was for when it was made.
Blipspot
for
22
Nov
2009
--
Ebey
(PNW
region)
4km
grid
VALID.TIME
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
VALID.TIME
ForecastPd
10.0h
11.0h
12.0h
13.0h
14.0h
15.0h
16.0h
17.0h
18.0h
19.0h
20.0h
21.0h
--h
ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir
302
298
276
274
269
270
268
271
270
269
271
271
-
Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
25
21
27
27
27
28
26
24
23
23
21
19
-
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
Blipspot
for
22
Nov
2009
--
Ebey
(BLAN
region)
4km
grid
VALID.TIME
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
VALID.TIME
ForecastPd
4.0h
5.0h
6.0h
7.0h
8.0h
9.0h
10.0h
11.0h
12.0h
13.0h
14.0h
15.0h
--h
ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir
193
269
281
286
278
272
270
267
264
263
268
270
-
Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
11
19
20
17
17
18
18
21
23
23
21
19
-
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
Blipspot
for
22
Nov
2009
--
Ebey
(EBEY
region)
4km
grid
VALID.TIME
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
VALID.TIME
ForecastPd
4.0h
5.0h
6.0h
7.0h
8.0h
9.0h
10.0h
11.0h
12.0h
13.0h
14.0h
15.0h
--h
ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir
215
277
284
285
279
272
272
272
269
266
269
272
-
Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
14
22
22
16
15
17
20
22
23
25
23
20
-
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
Blipspot
for
22
Nov
2009
--
Ebey
(EBEY
region)
1.3km
grid
VALID.TIME
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
VALID.TIME
ForecastPd
4.0h
5.0h
6.0h
7.0h
8.0h
9.0h
10.0h
11.0h
12.0h
13.0h
14.0h
15.0h
--h
ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir
218
272
279
283
277
272
270
271
269
266
267
270
-
Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
15
28
23
16
14
15
20
22
24
25
24
21
-
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
Blipspot
for
22
Nov
2009
--
Ebey
(SKAG
region)
4km
grid
VALID.TIME
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
VALID.TIME
ForecastPd
--h
--h
--h
--h
--h
--h
--h
--h
--h
--h
--h
--h
--h
ForecastPd
Sfc_W_Dir
315
290
280
270
268
270
270
268
267
-
-
-
-
Sfc_W_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
13
17
20
22
26
27
26
20
19
-
-
-
-
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
If you follow these forecasts, please let me know which one seems to be the more reliable/accurate. They all start from the same raw data, but because they use different boundaries they end up with different results. TJ
Hours don't always match for GFS and ETA because GFS runs every 6 hours and eta every 12hours
ETA projections are for 6 through 84 hours in advance, from the initial model times of 0000, and 1200 UTC
GFS projections are for 6 through 84 hours in advance, from the initial model times of 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800.
Only 60 hour forecasts are reported here. LAMP forecast is updated every three hours.
from the SSW (200 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 knots; 4.2 m/s)
Visibility:
6 miles (10 km)
Ceiling:
2,500 feet AGL
Clouds:
broken clouds at 2,500 feet AGL overcast cloud deck at 3,300 feet AGL
Weather:
RA BR (rain, mist) SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!! "$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance
Note from El Diablo: "Keystone ferry, NAS Whidbey and Race Rocks data are virtually superfluous to the topic of whether Fort Ebey is, or will be, soarable. These are my own observations from twelve years and well over a thousand hours soaring there."
Jim Martyn (El Diablo)
2 miles north of Fort Ebey, along the bluff
MM5 forecasts (times on UW generated MM5 forecast graphics are always UTC
Note that both Ft. Ebey and Smith Island coordinates generate the same meteogram and sounding from the MM5. The one below is for KNUW, which is different.
That means that according to MM5, the forecast for Ft. Ebey is the SAME as the forecast for Smith Island. Experience has shown that the winds an the Fort can be quite different from Smith Island, so ask a long time Whidbey person for interpretation of the data. Remember that "Whidbey is On" may mean anything from steady 8 mph from SW to gusty 25+mph from the WNW, depending on who is saying it.
Right click on the image and choose "view or show image" to see the whole meteogram.
For soundings and metograms from other domains, use
To Get Digital Forecasts or Topo Maps, TJ's Full Weather Widget Enter an arbitrary decimal lattitude and longitude (within the continental US for forecast and topo).
CLD = forecast categories of total sky cover valid at that hour.
WDR = forecasts of the 10-meter wind direction at the hour, given in tens of degrees.
WSP = forecasts of the 10-meter wind speed at the hour, given in knots.
P06 = probability of precipitation (PoP) during a 6-h period ending at that time.
The 6 hour PoPs are valid for intervals of 6-12, 12-18, 18-24, 24-30, 30-36, 36-42, 42-48, 48-54 and 54-60 hours after the initial data times.
P12 = PoP during a 12-h period ending at that time.
The 12 hour PoPs are valid for intervals of 12-24, 24-36, 36-48 and 48-60 hours after the initial data times.
In the message, the PoPs are tabulated at the end time of the noted time interval. The numeric values of the PoPs are given to the nearest percent, ranging between 0 and 100%. A missing forecast is indicated by "999".
T06 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 6-hr period ending at the indicated time.
T12 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 12-hr period ending at the indicated time.
Q06 = quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 6-h period ending at that time.
Q12 = QPF category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 12-h period ending at the indicated time.
SNW = snow fall categorical forecasts during a 24-h period ending at the indicated time.
CIG = ceiling height categorical forecasts at the hour.
Cloud (CLD) Categories
ABBREV
MAV/ETA/NGM octa=1/8 of sky
AVN/GFS/MET
CL
clear
0/10 of opaque clouds
SC
scattered > 0 to 4 octas
1/10 to 5/10 of opaque clouds
BK
broken > 4 to < 8 octas
6/10 to 9/10 of opaque clouds
OV
overcast
10/10 of opaque clouds or totally obscured
XX
MISSING
Missing
MAV Ceiling Height Categories
1
< 200 feet
2
200 - 400 feet
3
500 - 900 feet
4
1000 - 1900 feet
5
2000 - 3000 feet
6
3100 - 6500 feet
7
6600 - 12,000 feet
8
> 12,000 feet or unlimited ceiling
MAV Visibility (VIS) Categories
1
1/2 mile or less
2
more than 1/2 - or less than 1 mile
3
1 mile - less than 2
4
2 - less than 3 miles
5
3 - 5 miles
6
6 miles
7
Vis is > 6 miles
QPF Liquid
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS: QPF CATEGORIES MAV and MET